The chief of Ukrainian intelligence has warned that Russia could launch an attack on Europe 2 to 4 years after the war concludes and that this timeline could be accelerated if sanctions are lifted.
According to Oleh Ivashchenko, the head of Ukrainian foreign intelligence (SZRU), Russia could restore its military capabilities and potentially launch an aggression against Europe within two to four years after the conflict in Ukraine concludes. This statement was made in an interview with Ukrinform published on May 26.
Ivashchenko noted that if sanctions are lifted, the rearmament process would accelerate significantly, and he mentioned that Kyiv has communicated its assessments to European partners.
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Western officials have echoed similar timelines, highlighting the increasing risk of direct confrontation between Moscow and NATO once the full-scale war in Ukraine comes to an end. Currently, Russia's military is heavily focused on the conflict in Ukraine, facing substantial losses in both personnel and equipment. However, Christopher Cavoli, the commander of U.S. forces in Europe, cautioned in April that Russia is rebuilding its military strength more rapidly than previously expected.
Ukraine's military reports that Russia has incurred nearly 1 million casualties—killed, injured, or otherwise affected—since the onset of the full-scale war. In response, Kyiv's Western allies, particularly the U.S. and the EU, have aimed to limit Russia's ability to rebuild its military forces by implementing stringent sanctions designed to disrupt supply chains and weaken Moscow's economy.
U.S., European, and Ukrainian officials, along with military experts, believe that Russia is losing its battlefield advantage, which they see as a reason to intensify pressure on Moscow to pursue a ceasefire, according to the Washington Post. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that he does not intend to impose further sanctions on Russia to avoid hindering peace negotiations, disappointing European leaders who hoped for a unified approach. The EU has committed to increasing sanctions if Russia continues to ignore calls for a ceasefire, and discussions are currently underway for the bloc's 18th sanctions package.
